The Nordic Horizon: Energy Supply in 2030

Olav Botnen, Power Market Expert, Volt Power Analytics AS

By Olav Botnen

At Volt Power Analytics, we forecast a 25% higher electricity supply, and a race to reach renewable targets.

In Norway, the development of new power supply is expected to be relatively weak until 2030, with minimal contributions from hydropower, wind power and solar power.

Large-scale hydropower projects are making limited headway, except for some capacity enhancements that do not yield significant amounts of additional energy.

Nevertheless, we anticipate a promising development of small-scale hydropower on the way to 2030. New wind power installations, both onshore and offshore, are expected to contribute several terawatt-hours (TWh) post-2030, though several factors have led to a stagnation in Norwegian onshore wind power.

This stagnation can be attributed to a combination of factors, including the proposed introduction of a 35% resource rent tax, substantial cost escalation, and challenges in obtaining licenses. The unresolved Fosen case continues to impede the licensing process.

Conversely, Sweden and Finland project larger growth in onshore wind power until 2030, along with some expansion in solar power. In Finland, the commencement of Olkiluoto 3 also adds to the anticipated energy sources over 2020s.

Denmark expects substantial contributions from both offshore and onshore wind power, as well as a significant increase in solar power, all within the path towards 2030.

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